| Clinical Impact of Rapid Recurrence in Oral Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma and a Nomogram for Early High-Risk Identification |
Younghac Kim1
, Eun-Hye Kim1
, Man Ki Chung1
, Han-Sin Jeong1
, Young-Ik Son1
, Jinyong Kim2
, Nayeon Choi1
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1Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
2Division of Hemato-Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea |
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Received: February 4, 2026; Revised: March 14, 2026 Accepted: March 28, 2026. Published online: March 31, 2026. |
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| ABSTRACT |
Background
This study investigates the effects of various clinical data on rapid recurrence (recurrence within 3months) of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) and develops prediction models using various combinations of data.
Methods
We divided 944 OTSCC patients into two groups based on timing of recurrence: the rapid recurrence group (RRG, N=89) and the non-rapid or no-recurrence group (NRRG, N=855). Treatment-related data were collected and analyzed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS) and rapid recurrence. A logistic regression–based prediction model was developed to identify the likelihood of rapid recurrence, and validation was performed using 10-fold cross-validation, leave-group-out cross-validation, and a calibration plot.
Results
Significantly lower OS rates were identified with increasing age, the T3–4 and N1–3 stages, a higher maximum preoperative positron emission tomography standardized uptake value (PET SUVmax), and rapid recurrence. Among the 89 RRG patients, T2–4 and N3 stages, a positive resection margin, and higher PET SUVmax were significant predictors of rapid recurrence, and postoperative chemoradiation was a preventive factor. A nomogram was developed to facilitate easy prediction of rapid recurrence in real-world clinical practice by risk-stratifying each clinical variable.
Conclusion
Rapid recurrence strongly predicts poor oncologic outcomes in OTSCC. Our validated prediction model, incorporating imaging and pathological factors, might help identify high-risk patients and support more tailored treatment and follow-up strategies. |
| Keywords:
Tongue cancer, Rapid recurrence, Early detection, Prediction model, Survival |
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